Big Brown’s Belmont anything but a foregone conclusion

--Ryan Roshau, NDHP

The Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown is the best three year-old in the world. His brilliant dominance through the first two legs of the Triple Crown have been electrifying. He is the CEO, Head of the Class, and American Idol all rolled into one.

So why should things be any different at 5:27pm on Saturday, June 5th?

Because it’s horse racing and it’s the Belmont Stakes.

The greatest mystery novelists have nothing on the script that the Triple Crown creates year after year. The past thirty years, the Triple Crown trail has been littered with tails of woe so unique that it makes one wonder what could possibly be next. Ten times “the one” has been denied. A safety pin in Spectacular Bid’s hoof, Real Quiet losing by an heartbreaking nose, and a bad break at the gate by War Emblem. Forget about mysteries, these Belmont ballads have been horror stories.

Most racing fans get up and dust themselves off, curse the racing gods, and relish thoughts that someday a horse will come along and make it all worth our while.

And here we go again.

There seem to be two sides to the Big Brown story. There is his boisterous trainer who has rubbed some the wrong way with his overconfidence, and a brash and brassy group of Wall Street Investors-turned thoroughbred owners. Rick Dutrow and Michael Iavarone have spotty pasts and their demeanors throughout this Triple Crown season haven’t exactly warmed the hearts of Americans the way Lucien Laurin and Penny Chenery did in the past.

But then there is this big, beautiful, I can’t-wait-‘til-he-runs-again-because-he’s-so-darn- impressive-to-watch-horse. He is captivating and your mind wanders when you think about what his talents make him capable of doing. His ability to overcome all obstacles and dispatch his rivals leaves you breathless. His record his perfect and he's done everything that's been asked of him, including the impossible. And in the end, shouldn’t that be what it’s all about?

We may be in for another breathtaking performance on Saturday but others, playing the role of spoiler, will line up. The cast of Stage Door Johnnies step up and state their case as to why they have a shot to deny history.

Leading the parade is Casino Drive, the American-bred, Japanese-based chestnut. His dam Better Than Honour seeks a Triple Crown of her own as she has foaled the last two winners of the Belmont Stakes (Jazil in 2006 and Rags to Riches in 2007). He has only two career starts but in his last race he won the Peter Pan Stakes impressively at Belmont when his connections say he was “only at 75%” after his travels from the Far East. Last week, Edgar Prado was named as his jockey. Not only is Prado regarded by many as the most patient and talented rider when it comes to Belmont, but he has also foiled two previous Triple Crown bids in 2002 and 2004, respectively. Pedigree experts will cite that Casino Drive is the best bred for the Belmont’s 1 ½ mile distance. Critics say he can’t achieve such a feat in his third career start. But didn’t they say Big Brown couldn’t win the Derby in his fourth start? Is there room for only one over-achiever this spring?

Four Belmonts in the past five years have been won by horses who ran on the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs in Kentucky then rested five weeks before prevailing in the Belmont. Is this a trend? If so, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati deserve a look. Granted, both horses where severely dusted by Big Brown in the Derby but they have been training well and have had the right timing between their workouts. Denis of Cork finished strongly from far back to be third in the Derby but expect him to be a little closer to the pace on Saturday. Tale of Ekati ran fourth in Louisville and he was promptly returned to Belmont Park where he has been training…and waiting. He is 2 for 2 at Big Sandy (Belmont) and his trainer Barclay Tagg now plays the roadblock role after he was denied a Triple Crown of his own with Funny Cide five years ago.

Another odd statistic lays in the fact that Kentucky Derby winners simply don’t win the Belmont. Only one Derby winner (Thunder Gulch in 1995) has won the Belmont in the last 23 years. If you consider all the Triple Crown busts along the way, maybe there is something in a horse’s form that simply doesn’t carry over between Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

And then there is “hoofgate”. Big Brown’s quarter crack has received more media attention than the buildup to the race itself. I am not concerned with the quarter-crack. If the trainer and vets say it is good, I believe it. I am mildly concerned with the timing, however and the fact that his action on the track has been reduced to a couple of gallops and only one serious breeze. Reports say Big Brown is full of himself and ready to go and he was a bit rank at the start of his workout. I hope the edge came off of him a bit because if he’s rank early in the Belmont in a race void of any early pace to challenge him, that could prove to be costly.

Big Brown has already shown in his brief and brilliant career that he has the ability to overcome. He does things regular horses simply cannot do. And ultimately, it should be about the fastest horse. Big Brown has push-button acceleration but the strong, steady, sustained move is what it takes to win the Belmont. If he relaxes and responds to jockey Kent Desormeaux at all the right times, we will be in for a coronation. If he regresses or another horse steps up, we could be in for a great stretch run, something Big Brown, dominant in all of his races, has yet to encounter and I for one would love to see what would happen if another horse looks him in the eye.

As fans of racing, setting the table with a Triple Crown possibility is the greatest banquet we can ask for. It is particularly tantalizing this year because more than ever, the signs point to this being the right horse at the right time. He could win, in fact, he should win.

But if history is any indication, please don’t consider this a foregone conclusion.