Triple Crown foils have proven lucrative in past

WARNING: The following message may contain information that could make some Big Brown fans uneasy.

Even the heartiest of Big Brown supporters has to be entering Saturday's Belmont Stakes with a bit of trepidation. He is clearly the best in the field on paper and he should win the final leg of the Triple Crown and secure his place in history. However, if an upset is looming, the winner could offer a boxcar payoff so the Belmont could be a great handicapper's race.

How you may ask? Well, if the past is any indicator the Belmont has produced some the biggest returns on win tickets over the past decade. The favorite going for the Triple Crown is often bet down to odds-on (1-1 or less) and others tend to float up in price. Based on his accomplishments over the rest of this year's field, Big Brown deserves to be a 4-5 or 3-5 favorite. But there promises to be thousands of $2.00 win tickets made for those souvenier hounds who hope to make a little extra cash on ebay if Derby and Preakness winner should triumph. As a result, Big Brown could drift down to as low as 2-5 or 1-2. What that does is inflate some other prices of legitmate contenders to some very tempting levels.

Something to consider: The last four times the Triple Crown was on the line (all foiled, of course) the average win ticket for a $2.00 bet was $68.40. Lemon Drop Kid was 29-1 when he upset Charismatic, Sarava was 70-1 when he denied War Emblem, and Birdstone was 36-1 when he collared Smarty Jones. When Funny Cide lost his date with destiny, 2-1 second choice Empire Maker was the winner.

Will another long shot in the 30-1 range steal the scene this year? The odds are against it, certainly, but there is little or no value in backing Big Brown and it might be worth a thrill to take a look at a long shot in Saturday's race who might add his name to the long list of spoilers.