by Ryan Roshau
So much for a sure thing.
Hindsight it always 20/20 but it's hard to say we didn't see this coming. This time with Big Brown things were supposed to be different but as the old saying goes, "fools and their money are soon parted."
I thought Big Brown could win and probably should win but I've seen very good horses through the years stopped cold in the Belmont Stakes in their pursuit of the Triple Crown. Everything has to go absolutely perfect in the Derby, Preakness and finally the Belmont. That is a great deal to ask and was it not Meatloaf, the wise sage, who pined Two out of Three Ain't Bad?
The demand for perfection is what makes winning the Triple Crown the toughest feat to accomplish in sports and passing the ultimate test is not (contrary to Rick Dutrow's belief) a foregone conclusion. Time on the track and fitness lost due to the quarter crack, the third tough race in only five weeks, the bad post and high temperatures, all seemed to align against "Brownie". That, coupled with the brash comments by Dutrow and co-owner Michael Iavarone probably meant karma was not standing at the window betting on Big Brown.
Only 20 seconds into the race I had to wince when Big Brown's head flung up high, rank and restrained by jockey Kent Desourmeaux. So much for the perfect trip. When he was carried out wide on the backstretch, it was another bad sign. As they approached the far turn you could see Desormeaux going to work, asking the question of the 1-4 favorite but the big horse provided no answer.
In the aftermath, Big Brown's connections didn't have the answers either. The horse was pulled up promptly as the field entered the stretch and wound up last in the field of nine. There were no physical ailments, only a tired horse who went from a career of beating everyone to a race where he beat no one.
Because of all the earlier mentioned points, I wasn't shocked he lost. An hour before the Belmont a the HRND Belmont Pary I visited with serveral seasoned horsemen (whom I hold in high regard) who voiced their reservations about Big Brown's fitness and the fact that he had rundown in his previous race. We came to a consensus that he will either prove to be the best and win in spite of himself or he would not hit the board. Turns out there was something behind door number two.
Looking back on it, I am a little suprised and frankly disappointed by how many industry "experts" jumped on the foregone conclusion bandwagon. Analysist were trying to out-do one another and the discussion became not if Big Brown would win but by how much? TVG became a week-long lovefest dedicated to Big Brown and his pursuit of greatness. Much of their telecast, in fact, was sponsored by IEAH Stable who owns Big Brown. I am all for shining the spotlight on the sport's stars but these guys are supposed to be in the handicapping business and they lost some credibility with me when not a single one of them made it interesting and went out on a limb to pick against Big Brown or at least give us a longshot possibility. By sunset Saturday, their thoughts and opinions layed scattered like so many worthless win tickets on Big Brown.
Now we move forward and hope that on another sunny Saturday we will have the opportunity to see the real Big Brown again. I hope that is the case because I don't want to remember him as the horse who was slowed to a cantor and walked over the wire in his last race. Here's hoping he's healthy and the connections send him out in glory with another race or two. I hope there is at least one more in the Travers at Saratoga in August on the same track where he broke his maiden. That would be a fitting final chapter to the Big Brown story.
But for now we turn the page and maintain that someday, a decade from now or perhaps sooner, a Triple Crown will be won. The right horse will come along and the racing gods will once again smile on some fortunate three year old and those that surround him.
It will happen but when it does, it won't be easy.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Big Brown’s Belmont anything but a foregone conclusion
--Ryan Roshau, NDHP
The Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown is the best three year-old in the world. His brilliant dominance through the first two legs of the Triple Crown have been electrifying. He is the CEO, Head of the Class, and American Idol all rolled into one.
So why should things be any different at 5:27pm on Saturday, June 5th?
Because it’s horse racing and it’s the Belmont Stakes.
The greatest mystery novelists have nothing on the script that the Triple Crown creates year after year. The past thirty years, the Triple Crown trail has been littered with tails of woe so unique that it makes one wonder what could possibly be next. Ten times “the one” has been denied. A safety pin in Spectacular Bid’s hoof, Real Quiet losing by an heartbreaking nose, and a bad break at the gate by War Emblem. Forget about mysteries, these Belmont ballads have been horror stories.
Most racing fans get up and dust themselves off, curse the racing gods, and relish thoughts that someday a horse will come along and make it all worth our while.
And here we go again.
There seem to be two sides to the Big Brown story. There is his boisterous trainer who has rubbed some the wrong way with his overconfidence, and a brash and brassy group of Wall Street Investors-turned thoroughbred owners. Rick Dutrow and Michael Iavarone have spotty pasts and their demeanors throughout this Triple Crown season haven’t exactly warmed the hearts of Americans the way Lucien Laurin and Penny Chenery did in the past.
But then there is this big, beautiful, I can’t-wait-‘til-he-runs-again-because-he’s-so-darn- impressive-to-watch-horse. He is captivating and your mind wanders when you think about what his talents make him capable of doing. His ability to overcome all obstacles and dispatch his rivals leaves you breathless. His record his perfect and he's done everything that's been asked of him, including the impossible. And in the end, shouldn’t that be what it’s all about?
We may be in for another breathtaking performance on Saturday but others, playing the role of spoiler, will line up. The cast of Stage Door Johnnies step up and state their case as to why they have a shot to deny history.
Leading the parade is Casino Drive, the American-bred, Japanese-based chestnut. His dam Better Than Honour seeks a Triple Crown of her own as she has foaled the last two winners of the Belmont Stakes (Jazil in 2006 and Rags to Riches in 2007). He has only two career starts but in his last race he won the Peter Pan Stakes impressively at Belmont when his connections say he was “only at 75%” after his travels from the Far East. Last week, Edgar Prado was named as his jockey. Not only is Prado regarded by many as the most patient and talented rider when it comes to Belmont, but he has also foiled two previous Triple Crown bids in 2002 and 2004, respectively. Pedigree experts will cite that Casino Drive is the best bred for the Belmont’s 1 ½ mile distance. Critics say he can’t achieve such a feat in his third career start. But didn’t they say Big Brown couldn’t win the Derby in his fourth start? Is there room for only one over-achiever this spring?
Four Belmonts in the past five years have been won by horses who ran on the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs in Kentucky then rested five weeks before prevailing in the Belmont. Is this a trend? If so, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati deserve a look. Granted, both horses where severely dusted by Big Brown in the Derby but they have been training well and have had the right timing between their workouts. Denis of Cork finished strongly from far back to be third in the Derby but expect him to be a little closer to the pace on Saturday. Tale of Ekati ran fourth in Louisville and he was promptly returned to Belmont Park where he has been training…and waiting. He is 2 for 2 at Big Sandy (Belmont) and his trainer Barclay Tagg now plays the roadblock role after he was denied a Triple Crown of his own with Funny Cide five years ago.
Another odd statistic lays in the fact that Kentucky Derby winners simply don’t win the Belmont. Only one Derby winner (Thunder Gulch in 1995) has won the Belmont in the last 23 years. If you consider all the Triple Crown busts along the way, maybe there is something in a horse’s form that simply doesn’t carry over between Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.
And then there is “hoofgate”. Big Brown’s quarter crack has received more media attention than the buildup to the race itself. I am not concerned with the quarter-crack. If the trainer and vets say it is good, I believe it. I am mildly concerned with the timing, however and the fact that his action on the track has been reduced to a couple of gallops and only one serious breeze. Reports say Big Brown is full of himself and ready to go and he was a bit rank at the start of his workout. I hope the edge came off of him a bit because if he’s rank early in the Belmont in a race void of any early pace to challenge him, that could prove to be costly.
Big Brown has already shown in his brief and brilliant career that he has the ability to overcome. He does things regular horses simply cannot do. And ultimately, it should be about the fastest horse. Big Brown has push-button acceleration but the strong, steady, sustained move is what it takes to win the Belmont. If he relaxes and responds to jockey Kent Desormeaux at all the right times, we will be in for a coronation. If he regresses or another horse steps up, we could be in for a great stretch run, something Big Brown, dominant in all of his races, has yet to encounter and I for one would love to see what would happen if another horse looks him in the eye.
As fans of racing, setting the table with a Triple Crown possibility is the greatest banquet we can ask for. It is particularly tantalizing this year because more than ever, the signs point to this being the right horse at the right time. He could win, in fact, he should win.
But if history is any indication, please don’t consider this a foregone conclusion.
The Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown is the best three year-old in the world. His brilliant dominance through the first two legs of the Triple Crown have been electrifying. He is the CEO, Head of the Class, and American Idol all rolled into one.
So why should things be any different at 5:27pm on Saturday, June 5th?
Because it’s horse racing and it’s the Belmont Stakes.
The greatest mystery novelists have nothing on the script that the Triple Crown creates year after year. The past thirty years, the Triple Crown trail has been littered with tails of woe so unique that it makes one wonder what could possibly be next. Ten times “the one” has been denied. A safety pin in Spectacular Bid’s hoof, Real Quiet losing by an heartbreaking nose, and a bad break at the gate by War Emblem. Forget about mysteries, these Belmont ballads have been horror stories.
Most racing fans get up and dust themselves off, curse the racing gods, and relish thoughts that someday a horse will come along and make it all worth our while.
And here we go again.
There seem to be two sides to the Big Brown story. There is his boisterous trainer who has rubbed some the wrong way with his overconfidence, and a brash and brassy group of Wall Street Investors-turned thoroughbred owners. Rick Dutrow and Michael Iavarone have spotty pasts and their demeanors throughout this Triple Crown season haven’t exactly warmed the hearts of Americans the way Lucien Laurin and Penny Chenery did in the past.
But then there is this big, beautiful, I can’t-wait-‘til-he-runs-again-because-he’s-so-darn- impressive-to-watch-horse. He is captivating and your mind wanders when you think about what his talents make him capable of doing. His ability to overcome all obstacles and dispatch his rivals leaves you breathless. His record his perfect and he's done everything that's been asked of him, including the impossible. And in the end, shouldn’t that be what it’s all about?
We may be in for another breathtaking performance on Saturday but others, playing the role of spoiler, will line up. The cast of Stage Door Johnnies step up and state their case as to why they have a shot to deny history.
Leading the parade is Casino Drive, the American-bred, Japanese-based chestnut. His dam Better Than Honour seeks a Triple Crown of her own as she has foaled the last two winners of the Belmont Stakes (Jazil in 2006 and Rags to Riches in 2007). He has only two career starts but in his last race he won the Peter Pan Stakes impressively at Belmont when his connections say he was “only at 75%” after his travels from the Far East. Last week, Edgar Prado was named as his jockey. Not only is Prado regarded by many as the most patient and talented rider when it comes to Belmont, but he has also foiled two previous Triple Crown bids in 2002 and 2004, respectively. Pedigree experts will cite that Casino Drive is the best bred for the Belmont’s 1 ½ mile distance. Critics say he can’t achieve such a feat in his third career start. But didn’t they say Big Brown couldn’t win the Derby in his fourth start? Is there room for only one over-achiever this spring?
Four Belmonts in the past five years have been won by horses who ran on the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs in Kentucky then rested five weeks before prevailing in the Belmont. Is this a trend? If so, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati deserve a look. Granted, both horses where severely dusted by Big Brown in the Derby but they have been training well and have had the right timing between their workouts. Denis of Cork finished strongly from far back to be third in the Derby but expect him to be a little closer to the pace on Saturday. Tale of Ekati ran fourth in Louisville and he was promptly returned to Belmont Park where he has been training…and waiting. He is 2 for 2 at Big Sandy (Belmont) and his trainer Barclay Tagg now plays the roadblock role after he was denied a Triple Crown of his own with Funny Cide five years ago.
Another odd statistic lays in the fact that Kentucky Derby winners simply don’t win the Belmont. Only one Derby winner (Thunder Gulch in 1995) has won the Belmont in the last 23 years. If you consider all the Triple Crown busts along the way, maybe there is something in a horse’s form that simply doesn’t carry over between Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.
And then there is “hoofgate”. Big Brown’s quarter crack has received more media attention than the buildup to the race itself. I am not concerned with the quarter-crack. If the trainer and vets say it is good, I believe it. I am mildly concerned with the timing, however and the fact that his action on the track has been reduced to a couple of gallops and only one serious breeze. Reports say Big Brown is full of himself and ready to go and he was a bit rank at the start of his workout. I hope the edge came off of him a bit because if he’s rank early in the Belmont in a race void of any early pace to challenge him, that could prove to be costly.
Big Brown has already shown in his brief and brilliant career that he has the ability to overcome. He does things regular horses simply cannot do. And ultimately, it should be about the fastest horse. Big Brown has push-button acceleration but the strong, steady, sustained move is what it takes to win the Belmont. If he relaxes and responds to jockey Kent Desormeaux at all the right times, we will be in for a coronation. If he regresses or another horse steps up, we could be in for a great stretch run, something Big Brown, dominant in all of his races, has yet to encounter and I for one would love to see what would happen if another horse looks him in the eye.
As fans of racing, setting the table with a Triple Crown possibility is the greatest banquet we can ask for. It is particularly tantalizing this year because more than ever, the signs point to this being the right horse at the right time. He could win, in fact, he should win.
But if history is any indication, please don’t consider this a foregone conclusion.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Triple Crown foils have proven lucrative in past
WARNING: The following message may contain information that could make some Big Brown fans uneasy.
Even the heartiest of Big Brown supporters has to be entering Saturday's Belmont Stakes with a bit of trepidation. He is clearly the best in the field on paper and he should win the final leg of the Triple Crown and secure his place in history. However, if an upset is looming, the winner could offer a boxcar payoff so the Belmont could be a great handicapper's race.
How you may ask? Well, if the past is any indicator the Belmont has produced some the biggest returns on win tickets over the past decade. The favorite going for the Triple Crown is often bet down to odds-on (1-1 or less) and others tend to float up in price. Based on his accomplishments over the rest of this year's field, Big Brown deserves to be a 4-5 or 3-5 favorite. But there promises to be thousands of $2.00 win tickets made for those souvenier hounds who hope to make a little extra cash on ebay if Derby and Preakness winner should triumph. As a result, Big Brown could drift down to as low as 2-5 or 1-2. What that does is inflate some other prices of legitmate contenders to some very tempting levels.
Something to consider: The last four times the Triple Crown was on the line (all foiled, of course) the average win ticket for a $2.00 bet was $68.40. Lemon Drop Kid was 29-1 when he upset Charismatic, Sarava was 70-1 when he denied War Emblem, and Birdstone was 36-1 when he collared Smarty Jones. When Funny Cide lost his date with destiny, 2-1 second choice Empire Maker was the winner.
Will another long shot in the 30-1 range steal the scene this year? The odds are against it, certainly, but there is little or no value in backing Big Brown and it might be worth a thrill to take a look at a long shot in Saturday's race who might add his name to the long list of spoilers.
Even the heartiest of Big Brown supporters has to be entering Saturday's Belmont Stakes with a bit of trepidation. He is clearly the best in the field on paper and he should win the final leg of the Triple Crown and secure his place in history. However, if an upset is looming, the winner could offer a boxcar payoff so the Belmont could be a great handicapper's race.
How you may ask? Well, if the past is any indicator the Belmont has produced some the biggest returns on win tickets over the past decade. The favorite going for the Triple Crown is often bet down to odds-on (1-1 or less) and others tend to float up in price. Based on his accomplishments over the rest of this year's field, Big Brown deserves to be a 4-5 or 3-5 favorite. But there promises to be thousands of $2.00 win tickets made for those souvenier hounds who hope to make a little extra cash on ebay if Derby and Preakness winner should triumph. As a result, Big Brown could drift down to as low as 2-5 or 1-2. What that does is inflate some other prices of legitmate contenders to some very tempting levels.
Something to consider: The last four times the Triple Crown was on the line (all foiled, of course) the average win ticket for a $2.00 bet was $68.40. Lemon Drop Kid was 29-1 when he upset Charismatic, Sarava was 70-1 when he denied War Emblem, and Birdstone was 36-1 when he collared Smarty Jones. When Funny Cide lost his date with destiny, 2-1 second choice Empire Maker was the winner.
Will another long shot in the 30-1 range steal the scene this year? The odds are against it, certainly, but there is little or no value in backing Big Brown and it might be worth a thrill to take a look at a long shot in Saturday's race who might add his name to the long list of spoilers.
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